Municipal Election Post-Mortem: Cedar Park
Did our people not turn out? Or did our people turn out, but they are not really "our people"?
“The first to plead his case seems right, until another comes and examines him.” Proverbs 18:17
Voters lists are now available for the Wilco Municipal elections on May 7. First, we’ll look at the Cedar Park results.
Of the 6,904 people who voted in the Cedar Park Municipal Elections:
2,226 also voted in the March 2022 Republican Primary. Cedar Park Republican turnout for the March 2022 primary was 4,905, making the municipal election turnout 45.4% of the primary.
1,992 also voted in the March 2022 Democratic Primary. Cedar Park Democrat turnout for March 2022 primary was 3,682, making the municipal election turnout 54.1% of the primary
2,686 that voted in neither 2022 primary. But of those 2,686, 1,018 voted in the March 2020 Democratic Primary, while 326 voted in the March 2020 Republican Primary, leaving 1,342 municipal voters without a recent, partisan identification.
Add in the March 2020 voters to the March 2022 primary and partisan split roughly comes out to
2,552 Republican, ~37%
3,010 Democrat, ~44%
1,342 No partisan ID ~19%
A few observations:
A good number of Dems must have just took a pass on the March 2022 primary as there probably just was not a lot for Dems to get excited about in this primary cycle. However…
Dems are more enthused about the municipal election than the primary with a 9% turnout advantage.
Progs are outperforming their numbers: Prog candidates won Cedar Park City Council races in the neighborhood of 4,400 to 2,000 votes, nearly a 70%/30% split versus Patriot candidates. This is remarkable given their only marginal, recent partisan identification of 44%/37%. This means….
Progs are winning with Republican voter help. 2,552 Republican primary voters voted in the municipal elections, but Conservative candidates got less then 2,000 votes
“No partisan ID” voters must be swinging en masse for Prog candidates
So to answer the questions
Did our people not turn out?
Or did our people turn out, but they are not really ‘our people’?
The answer seems to be a bit of both.
Cedar Park Republican primary voters did not turn out for the municipal election at the same rate as Cedar Park Democrat voters
~20% of Cedar Park Republican Primary voters likely voted for Prog candidates
The Way Ahead
How can Patriot candidates become competitive again in Cedar Park?
First, get our people out.
If Patriot candidates can drive the same municipal turnout percentage of Republican primary voters as Prog candidates do with Democrat primary voters (54.1%) that would shift the partisan ID percentage to nearly a dead heat:
2,979 Republican, ~40.6%
3,010 Democrat, ~41.1%
1,342 No partisan ID ~18.3%
Of course, that won’t win municipal elections, but they won’t be won without greater, Republican turnout. Unfortunately, municipal elections are officially non-partisan in Texas which allows way too many Progs to skate by as “conservative” without having to declare a partisan allegiance. But can Patriot candidates just brand themselves as “Republican” in their campaign messaging?
Second, make “our people” our people.
The task of retaining Republican primary voters will arguably be a longer project than simply turning them out to vote in a given election. Too many Republican voters have outsourced their civic participation to the Republican party, FauxNews and owning-the-libs-on-twitter. Well, you can do that all the way to a Covid Concentration camp. By contract, civic participation is a religion to Progressive voters.
There is a huge need to re-engage and educate Republican voters on the biblical worldview on government, the US and Texas Constitutions, the doctrine of the lesser magistrate. When government at all levels deviates from these principals, it increases our pain. Unfortunately, given how well swampy, GOP incumbents fared in the March Primary, it’s clear that name ID carries way too much weight in Republican primary voters’ minds.
But, with the ever growing specter of squeezed family budgets, increasing crime, creeping authoritarianism and medical tyranny, perhaps God will use the pain caused by Prog policies (often with Republican connivance), to help a large body of Republican voters escape the trap of the devil who has taken them captive to do his will. But someone needs to put the woke cult on trial a la Ron DeSantis and drive home the point early and often that Progressivism is pain.
Third, attracting a critical mass of “no party ID” voters.
This group is easy to identify, but enigmatic. They may not be fire breathing Progressives, but are checking Prog candidates’ boxes on election day ballots en masse. Why change the ruling party when life is good in Cedar Park?
As with Republican voters, these voters need to be shown that life in Cedar Park is not as good as it once was. Show them the increasing pain they are feeling in their lives, their childrens’ school and bank accounts are caused by just the sort of people currently winning Cedar Park municipal elections by over a 2-to-1 margin.
With a Progressive Revolutionary now in the Mayor’s office and a critical mass of Progs and GOP groomers on the city council, what is to stop Progressives from enacting the next phase of their nefarious, steal, kill and destroy agenda on an unsuspecting Cedar Park?
What is coming is sad, but it is also an opportunity. Leverage the pain into teachable moments, ruthless mockery and a compelling alternative.
“The weapons we fight with are not the weapons of the world. On the contrary, they have divine power to demolish strongholds. We demolish arguments and every pretension that sets itself up against the knowledge of God, and we take captive every thought to make it obedient to Christ. And we will be ready to punish every act of disobedience, once your obedience is complete.” 2 Corinthians 10:4-6